Lumimaa: I don't think GoG can ever get really big, because so many gaming companies want to use DRM.
However, it’s not just about what companies want, but also what gamers are going to do.
The gaming world is changing, because consoles are starting to force all-digital games on users without any choice. Consoles used to be the easy and cheap way to start playing games. Future consoles will cost over $1000, and, more importantly, games cost more on consoles than on PC. This makes PC gaming in the future more versatile, cheaper, and gives better options.
Another thing is when game companies try to push digital games where you basically own nothing. There’s a side effect to this: many games have licenses even before they’re sold to consumers. Voice actors, music, subcontractors, all those licenses have expiration dates. This is really important because sooner or later gamers start getting frustrated when they lose the products they bought. That makes them look for other options, and GoG is the best choice for that.
Of course, as long as Steam keeps supporting games past their license expiration, those players don’t notice the problem. So I don’t expect Steam players to switch to GoG, but console players might. Sony and Microsoft are likely to cause issues for their player base in the next generatio gaming, they’re just too greedy for money. Consoles are losing the aspects that made them great; they’re turning more like PC gaming, but without the benefits PC gaming provides.
So console players go to Steam or GOG. More players are on GOG, the less chance game companies can ignore it. My point is that losing what you’ve bought will be more common in the future, and it will gradually affect gamers, making them more aware of the situation. As more and more digital product licenses start to expire.
Anyone going to PC gaming will use steam that isn't a question, it has the most robust interface not to mention having all games for purchase gog barely has a fraction of steam library.
Bankai9212: Not sure where you get the idea devs would release day one on GOG by buying 2nd hand. If anything it just re-enforces what all devs have been doing. Release on steam at launch after a period of time sell on GOG for a small amount of revenue. GOG can't really do much besides keep the existing customers happy, can't get new once and if they do anything wrong the community just lashes out.
flowingshard123: I am talking about the scale of purchases, if 50 million steam users (can include console users that have a PC too) also bought a 2nd copy of a game DRM-FREE on GOG at a deep discount for $2-5 that would be anywhere from $100-250 million dollars in revenue. Do this at scale and GOG will be in a really good place. This signal to Publishers that a lot of users want DRM-FREE copies and that a lot of revenue can be made on GOG. This in turn will make it more likely for Publishers to also release their games on GOG day 1 for potentially even more revenue. Even if the GOG version do not get a Day 1 release it would be a lot faster probably 1-6 months (majority of games) or within 1 year from Steam release.
It is as Hurricane0440 said expecting majority of users to double dip especially in this economy is very unlikely to happen. Majority of users favors convenience over DRM-FREE, digital rights ownership, game preservation etc. They want their games wrap up in a nice box in one place and I understand that, I use to be "Steam Or No Buy" user myself for a good part of 20 years. PC gaming is synonymous with Steam nowadays. Steam is a great product and service and it is not a surprise why the majority of users use it.
I think GOG appeal will continue to grow as the push for an all digital age intensify. There will definitely be more anti-consumer policy these AAA companies like Sony will push that will tip the scale in GOG favor albeit slowly.
If you have actual metrics to back up that 100-250 million claim please share that with companys because they'd easily start selling here day 1 with those numbers. Reality is that with small percentage of the PC market most games sold on here are lucky to even break or come close to 1 million. So as I said GOG will be viewed as a second hand store by most companies selling when they need a little extra cash. So most will likely buy it on steam finish and move on.
Even ignoring the economy most aren't going to repurchase a game unless they really like it or want the offline installer.